在研工作

@unpublished{abebewpdesigning,
  author = {Abebe, Girum and Caria, Stefano and Gerard, François and Hensel, Lukas and Spaziani, Sara},
  title  = {{Designing Severance Insurance: Theory and Evidence from Ethiopia}},
  note   = {Conditionally accepted, Journal of Development Economics}
}

@unpublished{garlickwpjobseekers,
  author = {Garlick, Rob and Hensel, Lukas and Kiss, Andrea and Orkin, Kate},
  title  = {{Jobseekers’ Beliefs about Comparative Advantage and (Mis)Directed Search}},
  note   = {Revise and resubmit, AEJ: Applied}
}

Job loss is an understudied risk for formal workers in lower-income countries. In these settings, lump-sum severance pay is often the only source of job-loss insurance. We quasi-experimentally show that female factory workers in Ethiopia displaced by a tariff hike experience lasting declines in employment and consumption spending, and rising poverty. Experimentally, we find that additional lump-sum support induces early spending and reduces overall and manufacturing employment persistently. Disbursing an equivalent amount in tranches improves consumption smoothing and avoids adverse employment effects. Further, we document a high willingness to pay for additional insurance, alongside heterogeneous preferences over disbursement modality that shape responses to our interventions. These findings imply that increasing job-loss insurance raises welfare, although moving away from the lump-sum default can generate substantial additional gains.

@techreport{abebe2026mitigating,
  author      = {Abebe, Girum and Caria, Stefano and Gerard, François and Hensel, Lukas},
  title       = {{Mitigating the Consequences of Job Loss in Lower-Income Countries: Evidence from Ethiopia}},
  institution = {IZA Institute of Labor Economics},
  type        = {IZA Discussion Paper},
  number      = {18537},
  year        = {2026}
}

We conduct a field experiment with job seekers to investigate how feedback influences job search and labor market outcomes. Job seekers who receive feedback on their ability compared to other job seekers update their beliefs and increase their search effort. Specifically, initially underconfident individuals intensify their job search. In contrast, overconfident individuals do not adjust their behavior. Moreover, job seekers’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for feedback predicts treatment effects: only among underconfident individuals with positive WTP, we observe significant increases in both search effort and search success. We present suggestive evidence that this pattern arises from heterogeneity in how job seekers perceive the relevance of relative cognitive ability to job search returns. While the intervention appears cost-effective, job seekers’ WTP remains insufficient to cover its costs.

@techreport{hensel2026feedback,
  author      = {Hensel, Lukas and Isphording, Ingo and Radbruch, Jonas and Tekleselassie, Tsegay and Witte, Marc},
  title       = {{Feedback, Confidence, and Job Search Behavior}},
  institution = {IZA Institute of Labor Economics},
  type        = {IZA Discussion Paper},
  number      = {17761},
  year        = {2026}
}

@unpublished{chen2026followers,
  author = {Chen, Yuyu and Hensel, Lukas and Yao, Yang},
  title  = {{From Followers to Leaders: The Career Impact of High-quality Managers}},
  year   = {2026},
  note   = {January 2026 update}
}

Wage information is rare in job adverts, yet crucial for search. To study this information friction, we run a field experiment with real vacancies, randomly adding or withholding wage information. Disclosing wages does not change average application volumes. Instead, it amplifies the wage elasticity of applications: higher-wage vacancies receive more applicants, while lower-wage vacancies receive fewer. Average applicant quality remains unchanged, challenging standard directed search models. We rationalize the lack of skill-based sorting with two-sided limited information about applicants’ skills. We further show that firms’ decision not to post wages can act as insurance against unproductive matches.

@techreport{balgova2025wage,
  author      = {Balgova, Maria and Hensel, Lukas and Tekleselassie, Tsegay and Witte, Marc},
  title       = {{Wage Information and Applicant Selection}},
  institution = {IZA Institute of Labor Economics},
  type        = {IZA Discussion Paper},
  number      = {18220},
  year        = {2025}
}

Social norms are crucial drivers of human behavior. However, misperceptions of others’ opinions may sustain norms and conforming behavior even if a majority opposes the norm. Privately shifting individuals’ beliefs about true societal support may be insufficient to change behavior if others are perceived to continue to hold incorrect beliefs (“lack of mutual knowledge”). We conduct a field experiment with 5,201 women in Kyrgyzstan to test whether creating mutual knowledge about social norms affects how perceived social norms influence behavior. We show that providing information about societal support for female political activism alone does not affect women’s political engagement. However, when perceived mutual knowledge is created, the effect of information about social norms increases significantly. Using vignette experiments, we show that the effect of mutual knowledge on social punishment is a plausible mechanism behind the behavioral impact. These findings suggest that higher-order beliefs about social norms are an important force linking social norms and behavior.

@techreport{esenaliev2025mutual,
  author      = {Esenaliev, Damir and Hager, Anselm and Hensel, Lukas and Kazakbaeva, Aiganysh},
  title       = {{Mutual Knowledge of Social Norms and Political Behavior}},
  institution = {IZA Institute of Labor Economics},
  type        = {IZA Discussion Paper},
  number      = {17748},
  year        = {2025}
}

@unpublished{garlickwphiring,
  author = {Garlick, Rob and Hensel, Lukas and Kades, Jennifer and Orkin, Kate},
  title  = {{Hiring on Soft Skills or Qualifications}},
  note   = {South Africa · analysis underway}
}

@unpublished{esenalievwpwomen,
  author = {Esenaliev, Damir and Hager, Anselm and Hensel, Lukas and Kazakbaeva, Aiganysh},
  title  = {{Women’s Group Empowerment Can Increase Political Participation: Evidence from Five Coordinated Field Experiments}},
  note   = {EGAP Metaketa V}
}